Sam Juliano’s Prediction For “Best Picture” of 2009….
Sam’s Best Picture Prediction:With a leading 13 total nominations The Curious Case of Benjamin Button would under ordinary circumstances stand an excellent chance at taking the big prize. The film, starring Brad Pitt and Cate Blanchett, is the kind of film that Oscar voters rally behind; it’s a sweeping emotional fantasy that is beautiful to look at, and it’s Alexander Desplat score is gorgeous. Yet, it appears that Button has no chance for the big prize, due to another film’s powerful grip on voters’ sensibilities. Still, it’s extremely likely the David Fincher-directed drama will draw the second most votes on this shortlist. As alluded to on the director’s thread, Frost/Nixon is a category “filler” and poses no threat of any kind.
It’s likely this Ron Howard adaptation of a successful Broadway play will finish dead last in the balloting. It’s placement in the top five has drawn much derision on internet blogs and truth be said, the animated gem Wall-E should have been here in Frost/Nixon’s place. Winner of the New York Film Critics Circle Award for Best Picture, Gus Van Sant’s biopic of the slain gay activist Harvey Milk entitled Milk has been a critic’s group’s darling since it’s release, and there’s a tiny fraction (and I mean miniscule) who are thinking it’s capable of pulling an upset, especially as a kind of “pay-back” for the unexpected loss of Brokeback Mountain in 2005, a decision that enraged the gay community and even those outside of it. Like several other films here in this category though, I feel it has no chance to win.
Stephen Daldry’s The Reader is a ravishing and moving drama that internet bloggers have had a ball railing against, (partially over dislike for the film’s executive producer Harvey Weinstein) but the film was gloriously vindicated weeks ago when one of the world’s most distinguished film scholars, the great David Thomson declared The Reader is easily the best film of 2008. Others in addition to Thomson have also praised it, but it has it’s share of enemies too. It’s Holocaust theme surely helped to propel the film to a very surprising nomination here in the big category, especially with the large Jewish vote in the Academy. That same vote gives the film a tiny shot at an upset, but similar to Milk, it simply won’t happen. Danny Boyle’s Slumdog Millionaire is as sure to win as any film in modern times. It’s a prohibitive favorite, and has previously been named Best Picture by more critics’ groups nationwide than any other film; it captured the Golden Globe for Best Picture Drama, it won the coveted Producer’s Guild Award; won the DGA for Boyle, and won the BAFTA two weeks ago from the British Academy. The feel-good movie has really struck a nerve with critics and audiences, and it’s win on Sunday night is simply a foregone conclusion.
[Sam Juliano's Personal Choice: The Reader]
[Sam Juliano's Predicted To Win: Slumdog Millionaire]
[Alexander Coleman's from over there at Coleman's Corner in Cinema]
Best Picture Prediction: Although there have been theories about a Benjamin Button upset in recent days, the one film to win the Scripter, Golden Globe, Critics Choice Award, Screen Actors Guild for Best Ensemble (a dubious victory in the face of Milk and Doubt that demonstrates just how well-loved this film appears to be), the Ace Editing Award, the BAFTA Award, Cinema Audio Society, the Directors Guild Award and a host of other “precursors.”
It would be a shock of Brokeback Mountain proportions if Slumdog Millionaire were to somehow lose Best Picture–which means that it is a possibility. But estimating the Best Picture race makes it apparent that Slumdog Millionaire is easily the favorite for the Best Picture Oscar.
The Nominees:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Frost/Nixon
Milk
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire
Hi! Sam Juliano and WitD readers,
I have watched “Slumdog Millionaire”
and must admit I have only watched the trailer for the film The Reader, but for some unknown reason, I have a “funny” feeling that Stephen Daldry’s The Reader, will take home “Oscars Gold,” tomorrow and I’am not just saying this in order to “stir up” if you will controversy.
I know a “strange or funny feeling” don’t pass the “Oscars acid test, ” but for some unknown reason, I think the film “The Reader,” will take home the “Gold Statuette” tomorrow.
But if it don’t receive an Oscars@ for Best Picture tomorrow then my “strange or funny feeling” was wrong period!…end of story!
Tks,
Dcd
Dee Dee:
What you are saying here is truly MUSIC to my ears!!!! I am hoping for this BOG BIG UPSET of THE READER winning!!!!
Don’t get me wrong, I like SLUMDOG a lot, and have no problem with it winning, but THE READER is the one I am really really pulling for!
Dee Dee, what did you think of SLUMDOG?
Thanks again for this most welcomed “intuition” you have on this!!!
Sam
Sam Juliano said, Dee Dee, what did you think of SLUMDOG?
Hi! Sam Juliano,
Well, I addressed the film over there under this heading….(I didn’t want to copy and paste my opinion again.)
Danny Boyle’s “Slumdog Millionaire” A Propulsive and Pulsating Examination of the Human Spirit and Dreams Fulfilled.
I’am not sure if you are aware of the fact, that I also discussed the film ending over there with Rick, at Coosa Creek Cinema, in order to get a different perspective of the film ending. Overall,
I enjoyed film, but I don’t think that it should take home the “Gold Statuette” tomorrow!…Once again!…just my opinion!
Dcd
Hi! Sam Juliano,
A couple of “missing” words in my previous comment…Fighting a “migraine” you know!…No excuse!…I still should have ‘proofread’ my comment…
…“I enjoyed watching the film “Slumdog Millionaire,” but I still don’t think that it should take home the “Gold Statuette” tomorrow!…Once again!…in my very “humble” opinion!”
Take Care!
Dcd
Dee Dee:
That is a fantastic statement, and I completely agree with you! I must go over to Coosa Creek Cinema to see what you said there with Rick!
I agree with you that it’s a very good film, but I prefer THE READER to win the big prize.
Merci Beaucoup!
Sam
I am perplexed over all the hoopla that these awards garner. Allow me to say that I sincerely feel after playing these games for so many years myself that I feel I must speak up and remind everybody that while contests are fun, they really don’t amount to a hill of beans in the end.
Yes, there are the Las Vegas odds, and every film critic from every paper across the country are making predictions. But do we really need an awards show (one of many) tell us what is best?
I like what I like, and I know what touches my heart and mind. But art is art, and no amount of gold plated statuary can make me change my mind as to what I think are the best of the year. I have my favorites, (just as I’m sure everyone else does) and I don’t need to see full page spreads in the New York Times boasting nominations and awards to get me to change my feelings.
I’ve been prognosticating these awards for more years than I’d like to admit. I’ll also say that I do get excited when personal favorites show up on these things, so I’ll play the game one last time.
My choice for Best Picture (or at least the one that I think will win) is SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE. It’s the kind of “feel-good about life” love story that combines a bridging of foreign cultures, and is wrapped up in a lot of so-called ‘wordly pertinence.’ While I know the film is the front-runner, and probably will take the gold, I feel that this particular movie will fall from everyone’s memory with two or three years.
I’ve often said (and Mr. Juliano can attest to this) that I feel the Academy’s choices for Best Picture should not be about the ‘popular flavor of the year’ but about merit and longevity. Wouldn’t it be nice if the Academy would pick films that are actually remembered twenty or thirty years down the road?
MRS. MINIVER, THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH, AROUND THE WORLD IN EIGHTY DAYS, TOM JONES, GIGI, ORDINARY PEOPLE,RAIN MAN, BRAVEHEART, FOREST GUMP, A BEAUTIFUL MIND, CHICAGO, CRASH…….I can go on and on, and then my mind gets to that big abomination called TITANIC, every one of these films awarded the Oscar for Best Picture, loved for the moment and ultimately forgotten.
FOREST GUMP vs. a classic like THE SHAWSHANK REDEMPTION? Better yet, how about that it bested probably the most influential film of that decade, Tarantino’s PULP FICTION.
But don’t get me started.
SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE will win the coveted Oscar for Best Picture. I think THE READER is a better choice, and more of a favorite of mine. BENJAMIN BUTTON is a delightful film, but I feel it suffers the same narrative flaws and overbearances that FOREST GUMP suffered all those years ago.
Wouldn’t it have been nice to add to MILK and THE READER three films that were far more memorable, just as brilliant and clearly repeatable. I would easily have sacrificed the fifth nomination for any one of WALL-E, MAN ON WIRE, and most notably the sorely overlooked THE DARK KNIGHT.
WALL-E and THE DARK KNIGHT were the only two films that made just about every critics’ top ten list, and will go down in history as memorable classics.
Come back to me in a year and tell me how many times tomorrow night’s Best Picture winner you’ve seen since it takes the award. Wanna make a bet it won’t be as many times as the other three I mentioned?
Sorry, I’m just not into this stuff anymore. It’s fun playing around with, but ultimately it means nothing.
Art is art.
Hi! Sam Juliano and WitD Readers,
I wonder why watch the Oscar@ if half the performances are a “shoo-in” …(like you said, just for the acceptance speech… Oh! Phooey!)…maybe they should stop handing out all those awards leading up to the Oscar @ …and that would probably “cut” down on the “probability” rate of people guessing ?!?
The film that is going to win…and the Oscar @ viewership or ratings would probably increase again. (But really…Why watch the Oscars… for the Glitz and Glamour?)
Food For Thought: Happen if they (Daniel Boyle’s peers, awarded him with all those awards, just to ease the “pain” when the film The Reader win the “gold statuette”….
just a thought!)
(This comment has been “copied” and “pasted’)
Dcd
Hi! Dennis Polifroni,
Believe me the “majority” of people know that it’s just a “game!”…That people have been playing for 81 years. Oh! yes, I agree with you, Art is Art!….But our culture is a culture that is fascinated with “celebrities” and films which of course is an American invention.
I wonder what would happen if after the award show tomorrow actor Hugh Jackman, said, This is the final Oscars @ awards show!” …What do you think would happen?
Dcd
Ah Dee Dee!!!
That was a crafty answer, and you are quite right when you say “What do you think will happen?”
People are addicted to this stuff! What you say about our culture, the longevity of the Oscars etc, I completely agree with!!!
I just send the responses to your wonderful questions to me, Dee Dee!!!
Come on, people, the Oscars is a pile of sycophantic, back-slapping bollocks, and the only people who take it seriously are not film fans, they’re merely star spotters who want to see how many they can guess right, but who increasingly find themselves doing two lists of what they think will win and what should, or even for those with intelligence to see beyond that, what should win or be nominated but wasn’t even shortlisted. Does this in itself not tell you as to the whole shebang’s utter worthlessness?
Best Actor and Actress? That’s the one who most convincingly smiles and applauds when they don’t win while muttering “fuck you!” in the ultimate succinct soliloquy. Some winners shpuld be too ashamed to pick up the awards they patently didn’t deserve. I remember Tom Hanks commiserating with Nigel Hawthorne after winning for Forrest Gump over The Madness of King George. Commiserate? Tom, you should have invited Nigel up on the stage when accepting it and given it to the right guy. It was bad enough he accepted for the embarrassment that was Philadelphia, when Tony Hopkins and Daniel Day-Lewis both gave two performances better than that in the very same year. I’d have been calling out “Tony, get up here.”
(All that being said, I hope Kate does win it this year, if only because she’ll no longer be asked those ridiculous questions about being a multiple loser. And if not, she just joins the ranks of the TOO GOOD FOR OSCAR category – and when one considers Judy Garland, Carole Lombard, Margaret Sullvana, Barbara Stanwyck (why have her when you can give two to Luise Rainer, no disrespect to Luise), Deborah Kerr, Gena Rowlands, Miranda Richardson, Julianne Moore, Emily Watson and various others. Hell Cary Grant is the founder chairman of that select group.)
Thank God it’s all over for another year after tonight and we can get on to actually watching movies and making decisions about their worth, rather than dissecting the opinions of a load of worthless, bigoted conservatives who vote for the most worthy films to make a political statement – so we had to put up with such awful choices as Crash, A Beautiful Mind, Chicago, Forrest Gump, Driving Miss Daisy, Dances With Wolves, Titanic and Million Dollar Baby, all of which give new meaning to underwhelming.
A body that gives lifetime achievement awards to talented people as their way of realising “sorry, we fucked up, but you were too much of a genius to ever win a proper award. There you are Mr Hitchcock, Wajda, Antonioni, Altman, Bergman, etc, etc...” That’s if they live long enough for the academy to get round to it – oops, sorry, Stan, didn’t see that coming!
Watching the Oscars it’s all dominated by what the women are wearing. Who gives a rat’s arse? It’s like Royal Ascot, where people want to watch the Racing, not what posh people are wearing on their heads whils supping Dom Perignon. I remember Julie Christie coming in 1966 in a frock her mate made for her – that’s the ticket. Sam Morton in a Sex Pistols TV shirt I’ll never forget, God bless her. And as Johnny, Sid and co might have said, NEVER MIND THE BOLLOCKS!!!
The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, sponsored by Antonio Salieri – he won one, too, ironically – representing mediocrities everywhere. They are their champion.
Hi! Allan Fish,
Omg!…Now tell us how you really feel!
(Just kidding!)
I agree with you, but of course….because I don’t
watch television. (Oh! yes, that include not watching the Oscars@) (….Believe me I’am only discussing the Oscars, because some bloggers, in the blogosphere, are discussing the Oscars online…)
Allan said, “A body that gives lifetime achievement awards to talented people as their way of realising “sorry, we (expletive) up, but you were too much of a genius to ever win a proper award. There you are Mr Hitchcock, Wajda, Antonioni, Altman, Bergman, etc, etc…” That’s if they live long enough for the academy to get round to it – oops, sorry, Stan, didn’t see that coming!”
Now, I’am truly in agreement with you, when it comes to director Alfred Hitchcock and the way he was “overlooked” by The Academy of Motion Pictures and Sciences.
Tks,
Dcd
“I know a “strange or funny feeling” don’t pass the “Oscars acid test, ” but for some unknown reason, I think the film “The Reader,” will take home the “Gold Statuette” tomorrow.
But if it don’t receive an Oscars@ for Best Picture tomorrow then my “strange or funny feeling” was wrong period!…end of story!
Oh! Phooey!…The Reader, should have won!
Btw, Thanks, to T.S. and Mrs. T.S., (From over there at Screen Savour) I was able to read a play by play (minute by minute) of all the happening at the Oscars@…Due to T.S., live blog broadcast. I didn’t have to turn on my television. Yay!
Dcd