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Can Geoffrey Rush upset Christian Bale in Best Supporting Actor race? Pierre de Plume has the scoop in an extraordinary comparative analysis

by Pierre de Plume

 

This Year’s Oscar Race for Supporting Actor:

Comparing SAG and Oscar Winners

(and other factors)

      Most people – even many film fans – would consider Oscar prognosticating to be a rather meaningless waste of time. A core of Oscar fans, however, become just a bit obsessed this time of year with many of the awards races. Always looking (and hoping) for a surprise win or upset to make Oscarwatching more interesting and fun, fervent fans enjoy dissecting the competition through statistics and anecdotal evidence.

 Of the year’s acting races, the supporting categories appear more fluid. This  article focuses on the supporting actor field, where Christian Bale (The Fighter) presumably holds the lead, primarily because of critical dominance and the SAG and Golden Globe awards he recently received.

 Some prognosticators of late, however, have been suggesting a potential win for Geoffrey Rush (The King’s Speech), citing a recent groundswell of support for that film. Let’s take a look at the numbers and some of the anecdotal evidence that might conceivably support such a call, focusing primarily on what many consider to be the strongest pre-Oscar indicator in the acting races, the Screen Actors Guild (SAG) awards. Listed below are the SAG and Oscar winners for acting, including ensemble acting, for years these 2 awards didn’t match: (more…)

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1. Revolutionary Road

2. The Wrestler

3. Man on Wire

4. Slumdog Millionaire

5. Doubt

6. Let the Right One In

7. Milk

8. Vicky Cristina Barcelona

9. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

10. Rachel Getting Married

 

ALSO RANS:

The Visitor

The Dark Knight

Burn After Reading

The Reader

Synecdoche, New York

WALL-E

Trouble the Water

In Bruges

Iron Man

 

NOT SEEN:

Happy-Go-Lucky

Waltz With Bashir

Up the Yangtze

Encounters at the Edge of the World

My Winnipeg

Wendy and Lucy

Flight of the Red Balloon

Frozen River

Paranoid Park

 

NOT REALLY A 2008 FILM TO ME:

4 Months 3 Weeks 2 Days

 

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