Archive for February 6th, 2011

Can Geoffrey Rush upset Christian Bale in Best Supporting Actor race? Pierre de Plume has the scoop in an extraordinary comparative analysis

by Pierre de Plume


This Year’s Oscar Race for Supporting Actor:

Comparing SAG and Oscar Winners

(and other factors)

      Most people – even many film fans – would consider Oscar prognosticating to be a rather meaningless waste of time. A core of Oscar fans, however, become just a bit obsessed this time of year with many of the awards races. Always looking (and hoping) for a surprise win or upset to make Oscarwatching more interesting and fun, fervent fans enjoy dissecting the competition through statistics and anecdotal evidence.

 Of the year’s acting races, the supporting categories appear more fluid. This  article focuses on the supporting actor field, where Christian Bale (The Fighter) presumably holds the lead, primarily because of critical dominance and the SAG and Golden Globe awards he recently received.

 Some prognosticators of late, however, have been suggesting a potential win for Geoffrey Rush (The King’s Speech), citing a recent groundswell of support for that film. Let’s take a look at the numbers and some of the anecdotal evidence that might conceivably support such a call, focusing primarily on what many consider to be the strongest pre-Oscar indicator in the acting races, the Screen Actors Guild (SAG) awards. Listed below are the SAG and Oscar winners for acting, including ensemble acting, for years these 2 awards didn’t match: (more…)

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