I won’t bore you to death with my ramblings on how the Oscars don’t represent a thing, how they end up giving the awards to the same kind of movies. You know why? Because in the bottom of my soul I love them, they give us thrills as we expect our favorites to win, we expect surprises, the speeches, the glamour even, who can blame someone in love with these awards? They’re addictive. Proof of that is my own blog, in which for the second consecutive year is reviewing every one of the 10 movies nominated for best picture in the order in which they are nominated (take a look at them if you want to).
So, let’s start with every category with who will win and who Should win (according to me, of course, and in those categories in which I’ve seen more than half of the nominees):
Best Picture:
Who Will Win: The King’s Speech.
Who Should Win: Black Swan.
Best Director:
Who Will Win: Tom Hooper, The King’s Speech.
Who Should Win: Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan.
Best Actor:
Who Will Win: Colin Firth, The King’s Speech.
Who Should Win: Javier Bardem, Biutiful.
Best Actress:
Who Will/Should Win: Natalie Portman, Black Swan.
Best Supporting Actor:
Who Will Win: Christian Bale, The Fighter.
Who Should Win: Geoffrey Rush, The King’s Speech.
Best Supporting Actress:
Who Will Win: Melissa Leo, The Fighter.
Who Should Win: Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit.
Best Original Screenplay:
Who Will Win: David Seidler, The King’s Speech.
Who Should Win: Christopher Nolan, Inception.
Best Adapted Screenplay:
Who Will Win: Aaron Sorkin, The Social Network.
Who Should Win: Michael Arndt, John Lasseter, Andrew Stanton, Lee Unkrich, Toy Story 3.
Best Foreign Language Film:
Who Will Win: Incendies.
Best Animated Feature:
Who Will/Should Win: Toy Story 3.
Best Animated Short Film:
Who Will Win: Day & Night.
Best Live Action Short Film:
Who Will Win: Na Wewe.
Best Documentary Feature:
Who Will Win: Inside Job.
Best Documentary Short Film:
Who Will Win: Poster Girl.
Best Cinematography:
Who Will Win: Roger Deakins, True Grit.
Who Should Win: Matthew Libatique, Black Swan.
Best Editing:
Who Will Win: Kirk Baxter, Angus Wall, The Social Network.
Who Should Win: Jon Harris, 127 Hours.
Best Art Direction:
Who Will/Should Win: Guy Hendrix Dyas, Larry Dias, Douglas A. Mowat, Inception.
Best Costume Design:
Who Will/Should Win: Colleen Atwood, Alice in Wonderland.
Best Makeup:
Who Will Win: Rick Baker, Dave Elsey, The Wolfman.
Best Visual Effects:
Who Will/Should Win: Chris Corbould, Andrew Lockley, Pete Bebb, Paul J. Franklin, Inception.
Best Sound Mixing:
Who Will/Should Win: Lora Hirschberg, Gary Rizzo, Ed Novick, Inception.
Best Sound Editing:
Who Will/Should Win: Richard King, Inception.
Best Original Score:
Who Will Win: Alexandre Desplat, The King’s Speech.
Who Should Win: Hans Zimmer, Inception.
Best Original Song:
Who Will/Should Win: “If I Rise”, 127 Hours.
So, which are your Wills and Shoulds?
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Nice work here Jaime!
You seem to agree with what ‘will win’ better than 50% of the time, which of course is quite good. Your immense love for BLACK SWAN has provided for the most instances of disparity, but that’s an admirable position to take. I was thinking you’d be going with Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross’ score for THE SOCIAL NETWORK over the INCEPTION score you prefer, but either way you are in opposition of the probable winner, Alexandre Desplat. Desplat has done some exceptional work and is overdue to win, but I know many will say it was because of THE KING’S SPEECH’s overall showing. (expected to be decisive). And that’s a bold move there to favor Bardem!! he was indeed extraordinary, as was my own personal choice Edgar Ramirez. But any of those two and Firth would be a valid choice.
Interesting that you say that Hooper “will” win when it appears that the momentum has shifted to Fincher.
This is quite the spirited round-up here!
And I like that red-carpet!
Okay with my newfound desire to stop knocking the Oscars I will give my list of who I think should win. I won’t include who I think will win since academy politics are totally foreign to me.
Best Picture: True Grit
Best Director: The Coen Brothers
Best Actor: Colin Firth
Best Actress: Natalie Portman
Best Supporting Actor: John Hawkes
Best Supporting Actress: Hailee Steinfeld
Animated Feature Film: The Illusionist
Art Direction: True Grit
Cinematography: Roger Deakins
Costume Design: The King’s Speech
Documentary Feature: Exit Through The Gift Shop
Film Editing: Black Swan
Makeup: The Wolfman
Music (original score): Trent Reznor (Social Network)
Music (original song): Daft Punk Derezzed (how was this not nominated)
Visual Effects: Inception
Writing (adapted screenplay): True Grit
Writing (original Screenplay): The King’s Speech
Sound Mixing: The Social Network
Sound Editing: Tron
Great post Jaimie!!!!!
Yes, I agree — that red carpet is lovely. I hope you don’t mind, Jaime, if I use it on my desktop for the next few days. . . .
Some bold predictions, here. You and I agree, Jaime, on many of the “shoulds” and “wills.” And, as expected, there are discrepancies. The problem for me is that not only have I not yet settled into a full list of predictions, I can’t even agree with myself on my own favorites!
PICTURE: I’d be satisfied with The Social Network, Black Swan, True Grit, Inception, Winter’s Bone but think that The King’s Speech will take it.
DIRECTOR: I woke up this morning feeling that Tom Hooper will win though I’d be happier with anyone else on the list except David O. Russell.
ACTOR: Firth, of course, will win. But I’d be happy to see Bardem
ACTRESS: Portman will probably win though I like Kidman in Rabbit Hole.
SUPPORTING ACTOR: I’m going out on a limb and saying Rush. I’d be happier if Hawkes were to shock everyone and take it. Bale not so much though he’s the safest bet in this category.
ACTRESS: I predict Steinfeld — irresistible in a great part and popular film. Surely the Academy is thrilled that the Coens can pull of G-rated work. I’m secretly rooting for Amy Adams. Leo is the safest bet.
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Seidler, though I prefer Another Year or Inception.
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: Sorkin, though I really like Winter’s Bone and True Grit. 127 Hours impresses me, as well.
FOREIGN FILM: Incendies. I haven’t seen any of them except Biutiful, which I liked but preferred Babel but for Bardem’s strong work.
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE: Inside Job, though I love Exit Through the Gift Shop and really liked Wasteland. Haven’t seen the other two.
ANIMATED FILM: Toy Story 3, which I thought was good. The Illusionist was beautiful but cried out for more. Didn’t see How to Train Your Dragon.
EDITING: The Social Network. I loved 127 Hours, as well.
CINEMATOGRAPHY: Deakins, True Grit. I was breathless over Black Swan.
ART DIRECTION: The King’s Speech or Alice in Wonderland (haven’t made up my mind.)
ORIGINAL SCORE: Desplat, The King’s Speech, though he doesn’t deserve it. Inception’s was good, The Social Network’s better.
ORIGINAL SONG: Toy Story 3. (They were all tepid.)
COSTUME DESIGN: The King’s Speech.
MAKEUP: Toss-up. Playing it safe with Wolfman.
SOUND EDITING: Inception
SOUND MIXING: True Grit (going out on another limb)
VISUAL EFFECTS: Inception (who else?)
DOCUMENTARY SHORT: The Warriors of Qiugang. (Killing in the Name may be a bit too strong at times. Strangers No More has gravitas and warmth — it could win. The director that did Qiugang won a couple years back for her short on Chinese children with AIDS. I think some AMPAS voters will find Poster Girl a bit too whiny at times.)
ANIMATED SHORT: Madagascar, carnet de voyage. This had the most visceral, cinematic feel. Packed with sensuality, sense of place and mood, and the look of a camera that is alive with movement. Both serious and humorous. (Day & Night is good, too, but I went for the visceral over the message piece. The Gruffalo, though a good story, is too plodding and has too much fat in it.)
LIVE ACTION SHORT: Na Wewe (though God of Love was fun and effective)
I’m thinking that Mr. Rush will triumph in the end on The King’s Speech’s coattails. But he delivered a very worthy performance. It will be a photo finish between Fincher and Hooper, and at this point I’m holding back on a final prediction. Steinfeld’s performance has Oscar written all over it, not even mentioning the allure of a new young actress to drool over. The evening’s surest bet of course is Firth, with Portman a seemingly solid investment.
Thanks for all the comments guys!
Well, in the end is all doesn’t amount to a hill of beans who wins or who does not.
However, and this has always been my case, the Oscars are a fun way of sparking off conversations and arguments with those that take the art of film to their heart. Film is a communal experience, it can be both private and public, it can touch many in a shot and, depending on the viewer, touch an individual so deeply that it changes their life forever.
The Oscars are a page-marker for bigger pondering, they help generate an excitement that reminds even those that don’t take medium seriously that they really are a part of our make up and a thread in the fabric of our lives. They take us to places we will never go, put us in predicaments we may never experience (and in some, hopefully, never experience) and allow us to dream.
The Oscars are not the be-all and end-all when it comes to a true and finite study of the art…
However, if it points one person in the direction of wanting to study film, or even seeing film as more than just an evening romp with a date clinging to their arm, then I say the Oscars have done an admirable job…