by Jaime Grijalba.
The Oscar race is done, and the principal winners are already known. They’re predictable at this time of year, but sometimes we have an itch, something that tells us that maybe not everything is said and done, there are many insider stories that tell us, for example, that maybe the winner that everyone is talking about is not going to be the real winner. So, here I am, supporting a sham, the awards season, the thing that most serious film enthusiasts hate, the Oscars. I don’t hate the Oscars myself, as much as I hate the options they take sometimes, but I think it’s always something to look forward to and it always brings up the conversation within friends… which was really the best film of 2011? For me the answer was clear, but for the Academy, they still have to choose, so here comes the entertainment, trying to predict what is going to happen.
So here I present you my predictions for this year’s Oscars in all categories, as well as my personal choices (out of the nominees) that should win. Sometimes these two meet, but sometimes not, so you can post in the comments your wills and shoulds and let the conversation start! At the same time you can check out my personal blog (htp://exodus8-2.blogspot.com) where I’m reviewing every film with a best picture nomination all through the week until the sunday, where I’ll post my personal ranking of the films. Now, without further ado, let’s dive into the predictions. Please, fight and defend your choices!
Best Picture:
Who Will Win: The Artist.
Who Should Win: Hugo.
Best Director:
Who Will Win: Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist.
Who Should Win: Martin Scorsese, Hugo.
Best Actor:
Who Will Win: Jean Dujardin, The Artist.
Who Should Win: Gary Oldman, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy.
Best Actress:
Who Will Win: Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady.
Who Should Win: Rooney Mara, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo.
Best Supporting Actor:
Who Will Win: Christopher Plummer, Beginners.
Who Should Win: Jonah Hill, Moneyball.
Best Supporting Actress:
Who Will Win: Octavia Spencer, The Help.
Who Should Win: Bérénice Bejo, The Artist.
Best Original Screenplay:
Who Will Win: Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist.
Who Should Win: Asghar Farhadi, A Separation.
Best Adapted Screenplay:
Who Will Win: Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon, Jim Rash, The Descendants.
Who Should Win: John Logan, Hugo.
Best Foreign Language Film:
Who Will/Should Win: A Separation.
Best Animated Feature:
Who Will/Should Win: Rango.
Best Animated Short Film:
Who Will Win: La Luna.
Best Live Action Short Film:
Who Will Win: Raju.
Best Documentary Feature:
Who Will Win: Undefeated.
Best Documentary Short Film:
Who Will Win: The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom.
Best Cinematography:
Who Will/Should Win: Emmanuel Lubezki, The Tree of Life.
Best Editing:
Who Will/Should Win: Thelma Schoonmaker, Hugo.
Best Art Direction:
Who Will/Should Win: Dante Ferretti, Francesca Lo Schiavo, Hugo.
Best Costume Design:
Who Will/Should Win: Sandy Powell, Hugo.
Best Makeup:
Who Will Win: Martial Corneville, Lynn Johnson, Matthew W. Mungle, Albert Nobbs.
Best Visual Effects:
Who Will Win: Joe Letteri, Dan Lemmon, R. Christopher White, Daniel Barrett, Rise of the Planet of the Apes.
Best Sound Mixing:
Who Will/Should Win: Tom Fleischman, John Migdley, Hugo.
Best Sound Editing:
Who Will/Should Win: Phillip Stockton, Eugene Gearty, Hugo.
Best Original Score:
Who Will/Should Win: Ludovic Bource, The Artist.
Best Original Song:
Who Will Win: “Man or Muppet”, The Muppets.
Click on names for archives
Writers/Founders
Wonders in the Dark 
While I agree that Oldman is really really great in TINKER (and deserved the nomination for his work in the flm as well as for all the forgotten nominations that have slipped through his fingers-a little SID AND NANCY anyone?)…
I saw THE ARTIST again last night. Whether or not I have more praise to give the film on the second viewing (I do) than the first, the fact remains that DeJardin’s performance is a stunner all the way. His chic, devil-may-care presence, physicality and facial performance hold the film together in every scene he’s in and it’s a performance of the greatest kind of skill. He performs without words and has to push further with what many take for granted these days with physicality. It’s a star making performance. I have no problems in saying that he deserves the Oscar hands down in this group of nominees for BEST ACTOR (Oldman would have been my second choice)…
Now, of course, had the ones that really deserved to get in there got in, I would be singing a different tune…
I thought they should have been:
Gary Oldman (TINKER, TAILOR, SOLDIER, SPY)
Ryan Gosling (DRIVE)
Jean DeJardin (THE ARTIST)
MICHEAL FASSBENDER (SHAME)
Micheal Shannon (TAKE SHELTER)
and MY winner would have been (drum-roll please):
MICHEAL FASSBENDER (SHAME)
To think you have Meryl Streep as the one that WILL win is laughable unless you haven’t been keeping up with the papers and articles written about the race for Oscar, or if you haven’t been prerusing the Oscar prediction sites (or Sam’s own Monday Morning Diary)…
Meryl Streep is now the second choice to win for BEST ACTRESS as Viola Davis snagged the SAG award only a few weeks back. As Sam recounted on the Oscar video; almost always the Oscar goes to the performer that snagged the SAG…
I agree that Streep is the titan in the race and I would be tickled pink if MARA took it for DRAGON TATTOO (she was my favorite of the nominees in this category), but now it seems that Davis has the slight edge and will prevail on Sunday night…
Of course, as with the BEST ACTOR race, I’d be singing a different tune if the nominees looked like this:
Meryl Streep (THE IRON LADY)
Berenice Bejo (THE ARTIST)-I saw this film again last night and she is not in the right category. This was clearly a LEAD actress performance.
Tilda Swinton (WE NEED TO TALK ABOUT KEVIN)
Rooney Mara (THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO)
Kirsten Dunst (MELANCHOLIA)
And, my winner (again, drum-roll, PLEASE):
TILDA SWINTON (WE NEED TO TALK ABOUT KEVIN)
There’s the thing I say in the opening paragraph. My spidey sense tells me that Meryl Streep will win the Oscar, even if Viola Davis has the traction from the last awards… just like what happened with Rourke/Penn.
But, Jaime, in the case of Rourke Vs. Penn, the Academy saw through the fog and picked the right winner in the end…
I COMPLETELY disagree here.
Rourke was playing himself in THE WRESTLER. Sean Penn BECAME Harvey Milk. Big difference. One is a life caught on film, the other reaches into himself, finds the emotional center of the character and becomes it.
Rourke was being Rourke, Penn was acting….
On the topic of Streep at the Oscars, I honestly think that this should be her final nomination. EVER. Seriously and I mean that. Either they will give her the award today and she will never win again, so you might as well not nominate her. Or she loses for the 15th time and continues the agony. If I were her, I would bid the Oscars farewell after this one. It’s embarrasing to keep losing and it’s no longer just an honor for her to be nominated. Like I said, either way, this should be the last one. She should be removed from consideration. At least if I were Streep that’s how I would feel.
But, why Jon?
The facts are this:
Meryl Streep usually gets nominated because of her great performances. BEST is BEST. If she grabs another 20 nominations, then so be it. 99% of the time when she’s nominated her performance deserves the nod. Even with new crops of younger, very talented actresses coming into their own Meryl Streep is still formiddable and a master of her craft. Her performance in THE IRON LADY was, in my estimation, one of only two that truly deserved the nomination for BEST ACTRESS this year and the very best of the five… She was the titan of the five nominated performances. NOW SHE IS THE RIGHTFUL WINNER.
If she keeps her excellence up, I say nominate, nominate, nominate…
Now that she’s won it’s a moot point. But, if I were her and had kept losing every time. I would have been fed up with it and been embarrased by now. They’ve spared her more embarrasment, but we all know she’s not going to get another one.
and that’s what they all said about Katherine Hepburn (4 wins) and Jack Nicholson (3 wins). Ahhh-Hmmmmmmmm…
The two lead acting races remain the toughest ones to call, but it is indeed seeming more and more likely that Dujardin and Davis will be called to the stage.
I applaud your love for HUGO, which is surely one of the year’s best films. But of course I like THE ARTIST a little more and agree it’s headed for the Winner’s Circle. Only one film from 2011 for me ranks higher: THE TREE OF LIFE, which should win for Emmanuele Lubezki’s cinematography, as you note. Now some are thinking an ARTIST sweep could carry in Schiffman, but this is a tough category to predict.
Anyway, nice work here Jaimie!
Thanks Sam. I think that the Artist sweep won’t happen, as much as a Hugo sweep in the technical awards.
Jaime, here is what THE ARTIST seems certain to win tomorrow night:
Best Picture
Best Director
Best Actor
Best Screenplay
Best Musical Score
Best Film Editing
The Best Cinematography at this point is now a toss-up between THE ARTIST’s Schiffman and TREE OF LIFE’s Lubezki.
Ms. Bejo is a longshot choice for Supporting Actress, with Octavia Spencer seemingly well in the lead.
6 or 7 for THE ARTIST in total, methinks.
Yup, yup, have to agree totally with Sam here. Also, I would think the costuming award could easily fall into the lap of the artist. As Sam reminded me the other night, Sandy Powell has won this award several times and the Academy may be looking to give it to someone else. So, 6 or 7 could become 7 or 8 for THE ARTIST…
I, too, would love to see the totally deserving Berenice Bejo snag the BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS prize. Only she and ALBERT KNOBBS Janet McTeer were worthy of the nomination…
Dante Faretti seems to be the only one associated with HUGO that is absolutely the lock for the prize… That film was all about the art and set designs…
To Dennis’ point on Best Costume Design, yes Sandy Powell wins most of the time and when she doesn’t, it usually goes to Colleen Atwood. So it’d be nice to see someone else get a trophy for a change, and THE ARTIST has a good a shot as any of the other nominees. Because I like fashion almost as much as film, this is category I like to follow, but none of this year’s nominees are particularly exciting to me.
And, again, reading through Sam’s comment, I agree that the Cinematography award is not so much the lock as we think it was from the beginnning. I do, however, think that in the end Lubezki will still take it for THE TREE OF LIFE (the one thing about that film that was undisputed from word go was the photography), but, yes, an upset by THE ARTIST could happen…
Look what I found… there is wisdom in those words.
Well, you know, I trust my itch, count my ballot in your party, and if i win, send me watever price you give.
I’m also thinking Streep may pull an upset. No question that The Artist with win a half-dozen or so.
All I can say here is that I’m glad I’m going to miss the Oscars. With The Artist cleaning up at the expense of The Tree of Life, it would just nauseate me to all end. (Hey I think I’m starting to sound a bit like Allan!!!)
Like Salieri over Mozart….
Jaime –
An interesting list, and, of course, tonight we’ll know how it all comes out.
HUGO would be my choice for Best Picture and either Scorcese or Malick as Best Director, but I don’t thitnk any of that has a chance of happening.
I’m also hoping for Viola Davis to take Best Actress and Jean Dujardin to take Best Actor myself,and I think they both will win. As for the supporting categories, I can’t say that I agree with you about Jonah Hill – to me, he’s the weakest nominee in that category. I’m particularly unhappy with the deserving Supporting Actors who were completely overlooked: Albert Brooks in DRIVE, Patton Oswalt in YOUNG ADULT, Viggo Mortensen in A DANGERGOUS METHOD….
Albert Brooks’s performance is overrated.
I think the Oscar nominations this year weren’t that good. I feel many great movies were left out of the best picture slot. This is what I think the nominees for best picture should have been. (for insight on my thoughts for these movies search for them on my blog, am busy so have not written reviews for all of them yet).
1. Drive (best picture, best actor, best supporting actor)
2. Win Win (best picture, best supporting actress, best screenplay)
3. Moneyball (all nominations given deserved)
4. Submarine (best picture)
5. 50/50 (best picture, best screenplay)
6. Midnight in Paris (all nominations deserved)
7. Margin Call (best picture, best screenplay)
8. The Ides of March (best picture, best screenplay)
9. The Tree of Life (nominations deserved)
Bonus 10 : Take Shelter (best actor)
Michael Fassbender was one of the biggest snubs, hopefully i will get my Oscar special out soon enough. I do not share your love for Hugo (review will be up sometime this coming week). It was good, but I don’t feel it was Oscar worthy. It was a great love letter to cinema with great effects. but I feel it never rose above that. I love the idea, I just wish there were more there. I didn’t agree with that much on Oscar night. Nice post.
I agree that there were at least over 15 movies that were better than any of the nominees, even if I don’t agree with your choices, I respect them (I never came on the Drive FANwagon).
Well thanks. I know everyone has their own opinions, and thanks for respecting mine as I respect yours. You say you never got on the Drive fan wagon as I never got on the Hugo one. The reason I loved Drive is because it’s not a typical mindless action movie. It develops it’s characters, then gets into the great action. It is an art house movie at heart though. Thanks for your reply.
Sorry. forget to say something, will be last thing. You are right that there were other movies that could have taken the best picture slot. Young Adult, Tinker Tailor Soldier, Harry Potter 7 Part 2, Shame, Trust, Beginners, My Week with Marilyn, and even though I didn’t put it on my list, The Descendants.
I’d say that are even better movies than those, but they didn’t have a USA premiere.
For starters, A Separation blows anything anyone ever mentions out of the water.
And about Drive, I can respect it, but not love it, it tries too hard to be slow and meditative, but sometimes the silent characters, the pauses and the whole thing is way too much. I like me some pause in action movies, some character development, but not this uncharacteristic development.